Bittensor (TAO): our full analysis, October 2026

Coming from our video? Here is the summary of our Bittensor analysis. The full analysis (charts, price markers, buy low / sell high grid) can be downloaded as a PDF at the bottom of this page. The PDF is in French. Data as of 5 October 2026.

What Bittensor does

Bittensor (TAO), launched in 2021, is an open-source protocol running a decentralised artificial intelligence network. Instead of a single company training and controlling the models, thousands of participants supply computing power and models, and are paid in TAO according to the quality of their contribution.

The network is organised into "subnets", each specialised in one task (compute, text generation, data, etc.). There are about 128 of them. Like Bitcoin, supply is capped at 21M TAO, and issuance is halved at each halving: the first one took place on 14 December 2025.

Who trusts it

• Grayscale: Bittensor Trust and an application to convert it into a spot TAO ETF, listed on NYSE Arca if approved
• DCG / Yuma: Yuma, backed by Digital Currency Group, launched an institutional Bittensor fund (June 2026)
• Bitwise: filed a TAO Strategy ETF with the SEC (April 2026)
• BitGo: institutional custody and staking of subnet tokens, with Yuma (April 2026)
• Safello: staked TAO ETP listed in Europe

What moved the price

After a record of $757.60 in March 2024, the price has moved in large waves between $180 and $680.

• November 2023, $85 to $288 (×3.4): the AI narrative explodes in crypto in the wake of ChatGPT and Nvidia. TAO becomes the benchmark for "decentralised AI".
• February and March 2024, record at $757.60: the AI narrative peaks, carried by the Bitcoin bull run after spot Bitcoin ETFs arrive.
• September 2024, $281 to $577 (+105%): AI token rally after OpenAI releases its o1 model.
• October 2025, $303 to $482 (+59%): anticipation of the first halving in December 2025.
• March 2026, $183 to $306 (+67%): a protocol upgrade reducing emission-related selling pressure, a decentralised training milestone (Covenant-72B), then ETF filings by Grayscale and Bitwise in early April.
• September 2026, $231 to $301 (+30%): TAO arrives on Raydium (Solana ecosystem), new emission rules for subnets and a market rotation into AI tokens.

Our view

Strengths:

• First halving done: issuance cut in half (from 7,200 to 3,600 TAO per day).
• Institutional access under construction: Grayscale trust, ETF filings, Yuma fund.
• Exposure to the decentralised AI narrative.
• Supply capped at 21M, like Bitcoin.

Watch points:

• About 60% below its record.
• Extreme volatility: −55% in 2025, +30% in one month in 2026.
• Spot ETFs are not approved yet.
• Value depends on the subnets' ability to generate real revenue.

Levels to watch

• $200: 2026 trough zone
• $480: October 2025 high
• $757: all-time high

Confidence index: 77%. A fundamentally solid project, driven by AI and the halving, but with a price that remains very volatile.

Buy low, sell high: where does TAO stand?

TAO sends two opposite signals. Long term, it is low: 60% below its record. Over 12 months, it is at the top (99% of its $183 to $306 range), after +67% from the February low. This cycle's buy-low moment was in the spring, between $183 and $230.

• Buy low: a return to $230 to $250 would offer a better entry point than the current price.
• Sell high: the $400 to $480 zone, the October 2025 high, is the first realistic target before the record.

The analysis verdict: top of the year, bottom of its history. Under the rule, no chasing at $305: better to wait for a pullback.

Educational grid based on monthly closes and historical levels as of 5 October 2026. Educational content, not investment advice.

Crypto-assets are highly volatile: you may lose some or all of your capital. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Sources of the analysis: CoinGecko, CoinLore, Digrin, Coinranking, Nansen, CoinDesk.