Tron (TRX): our full analysis, October 2026
Author: Yan Chan, capital manager at Axone Capital
· 4 min read
TRON is one of the world's leading networks for USDT, with about $94B issued on the chain. TRX trades only 22% below its record. What the network does, what moved the price, the levels to watch and where the price stands under the buy low, sell high rule.
Coming from our video? Here is the summary of our TRON analysis. The full analysis (charts, price markers, buy low / sell high grid) can be downloaded as a PDF at the bottom of this page. The PDF is in French. Data as of 5 October 2026.
What TRON does
TRON (TRX) is a public layer 1 blockchain launched in 2017 by Justin Sun. It lets developers deploy smart contracts and decentralised applications, with very low fees and fast transactions. The network runs on delegated proof of stake (DPoS), with 27 super representatives validating blocks.
Its main use today: moving stablecoins. TRON is one of the world's leading networks for USDT, with a record of about $94B of USDT issued on the chain.
Who trusts it
- Tether: issuer of USDT, the world's largest stablecoin, with TRON as one of its main issuance networks
- Revolut: TRX staking directly in the app, for more than 65M users (end of 2025)
- Ledger: TRX storage and governance staking built into Ledger Live
- Securitize: real-world asset tokenisation specialist, chose TRON as a distribution network (April 2026)
- Anchorage Digital: US-chartered crypto bank, TRX staking and custody
- Canary Capital: launch of a staked TRX ETF in the US (September 2026)
What moved the price
TRX spent three years between $0.05 and $0.10 before taking off in late 2023. Over one year, the price is almost flat: growth comes from network use more than from speculation.
- January to April 2021, $0.03 to $0.13 (×4): broad altcoin rally, driven by the Bitcoin bull run.
- 3 and 4 December 2024, +100% in one day, record at $0.4313: Justin Sun becomes the largest investor in World Liberty Financial, the crypto project linked to the Trump family ($30M), while capital rotates into older cryptos and volume explodes in South Korea.
- June to August 2025, $0.27 to $0.34: Tron lists on the Nasdaq through a reverse merger with SRM Entertainment, renamed Tron Inc., which builds a TRX reserve on the MicroStrategy model.
- March to May 2026, $0.28 to $0.35: settlement of the SEC case, lifting three years of legal uncertainty. Tron Inc. buys TRX every day (more than 716M held) and the Zero Hash integration opens access to regulated institutions.
- September 2026, range of $0.33 to $0.34: launch of the Canary Staked TRX ETF and a record $94B of USDT on the network. Yet the price stays in a tight range: the good news is already priced in.
Our view
Strengths:
- Real, measurable use: about $2,100B of USDT transfers in Q2 2026.
- Low fees, making it the preferred network for stablecoin payments.
- Top 10 crypto-asset by market cap.
- Growing institutional integrations: Revolut, Anchorage, the first TRX ETF.
Watch points:
- Heavy dependence on a single use: USDT.
- More centralised governance (27 super representatives).
- Declining DeFi activity on the network.
- A flat price for a year, with little bullish momentum.
Levels to watch
- $0.17: former resistance, long-term support
- $0.30: psychological support
- $0.4313: all-time high, major resistance
Confidence index: 70%. Use is real and measurable, but the dependence on USDT and the network's centralisation cap the score.
Buy low, sell high: where does TRX stand?
Over 12 months, TRX has traded between $0.28 and $0.35 and sits at 80% of that range, +20% above its November 2025 low.
- Buy low: a pullback to $0.28 to $0.30, the bottom of the year's range and psychological support.
- Sell high: from $0.35 up to the $0.4313 record, a zone where the price has already been rejected twice.
The analysis verdict: upper zone. TRX trades only 22% below its record, at the top of its annual range. Under the rule, this is not an entry point: for a holder, it suggests trimming on rallies toward $0.35; for a newcomer, waiting.
Educational grid based on monthly closes and historical levels as of 5 October 2026. Educational content, not investment advice.
Crypto-assets are highly volatile: you may lose some or all of your capital. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Sources of the analysis: CoinGecko, CoinLore, Digrin, Coinranking, Nansen, CoinDesk.