How to Analyze Gold — Fundamentals and Technicals?

The Analysis: Two Frameworks for Understanding Gold

Gold resembles no other asset. It generates no cash flows, pays no dividends, has no earnings to analyze. That's precisely why many beginner investors stop there: "You can't value gold." Wrong — you can, but with different tools.

On the Fundamental Side: Real Rates Are the Key

The number-one driver of gold prices in fundamental terms is real interest rates — nominal rates minus inflation.

Here's the logic: gold produces nothing. If you hold 100g of gold, in a year you still have 100g of gold. The question is therefore: what is the opportunity cost of holding gold rather than a bond?

When real rates are high (for example +3%), bonds earn more than inflation after deduction. Gold becomes unattractive — you sacrifice a positive real return to hold an inert asset. Result: gold prices tend to fall or stagnate.

When real rates are negative or near zero (for example -1%), bonds don't even protect against inflation. Gold, a millennia-old store of value, becomes competitive again. The price rises.

This relationship is inverse and robust over the long term: since the 2000s, the correlation between US real rates (measured by TIPS, inflation-indexed bonds) and gold prices is one of the most stable in macro finance.

The other two fundamental variables to watch: the dollar (a stronger dollar penalizes gold priced in USD, making it more expensive for foreign buyers) and central bank purchases (China, India, Russia and several emerging countries have been structurally buying gold since 2022 to diversify reserves away from the dollar — this demand supports the price).

On the Technical Side: Respect the Structure

Technical analysis of gold works like any liquid asset, with a few specifics. Gold is a global market, trading 24/7 — meaning key levels are often round numbers or historical consolidation zones, not just candlestick-derived levels.

Most useful concepts:

• Support/resistance at major levels: $2,000, $2,500, $3,000 have all played the role of significant psychological boundaries. A breakout with volume is more significant than a simple touch.
• Long-term trend: gold has been in a structural uptrend since 2001. On a monthly chart, each major low is higher than the previous one.
• Seasonality: gold tends to strengthen in September-October (jewelry demand in India for wedding season and Diwali) and January-February (Chinese purchases ahead of Lunar New Year).

The Anecdote: Buffett, Gold, and Barrick

In 2020, Warren Buffett did something that shocked the financial world. He — who had repeated for decades that "gold produces nothing" and he would never buy it — acquired shares in Barrick Gold, one of the world's largest gold producers.

The position was quickly sold a year later — Buffett admitted it was an indirect approach poorly suited to his philosophy. But the episode is revealing: even the greatest fundamental stock investor in the world sensed, in 2020, that the context (negative real rates, massive monetary injection, pandemic uncertainty) justified gold exposure.

The lesson: gold is not an asset to love or hate ideologically. It's an asset to analyze coolly, based on the macro context.

The Historical Fact: The 1971 Nixon Shock

Until 1971, the global monetary system was anchored to the Bretton Woods gold standard: every US dollar was convertible into gold at a fixed rate ($35 per ounce). On August 15, 1971, President Nixon announced the end of this convertibility — which entered history as the Nixon shock.

Gold then began to float freely. Result: from $35 in 1971, an ounce of gold reached $800 in 1980, a multiplication by 23 in less than ten years. The decoupling from the dollar triggered one of the greatest gold rallies in history.

This episode illustrates a fundamental point: gold is a store of value against monetary devaluation. Every time confidence in the dominant currency wavers, gold plays its historical role.

The Concept: Real Value vs. Nominal Value

In finance, there is a crucial distinction between nominal value (the displayed price) and real value (purchasing power after inflation). An ounce of gold is worth $3,000 in 2026 — but what was it worth in terms of purchasing power in 1971? About $250 in 2026 dollars.

In other words, gold has multiplied its price by 85 in nominal terms since 1971 — but in real terms, it has preserved and slightly increased its purchasing power. It's not an extraordinary wealth multiplier. It's a solid store of value — which is what gold has always been.

The Axone Lesson

Analyzing gold correctly means crossing two frameworks: macro fundamentals (real rates, dollar, central banks) and technical reading (structure, levels, trend). One without the other creates blind spots.

Axone Capital's Macro · Technique · Mindset method is precisely built for this type of complex asset. Gold is neither a magic bet nor an asset to ignore — it's a tool to understand, to dose intelligently, and to analyze with rigor. Like everything else.