Hyperliquid (HYPE): our full analysis, October 2026

Coming from our video? Here is the summary of our Hyperliquid analysis. The full analysis (charts, price markers, buy low / sell high grid) can be downloaded as a PDF at the bottom of this page. The PDF is in French. Price data as of 10 October 2026.

The context: asymmetry

October 2026: the market is in full risk-off mode. The war between the United States and Iran is entering its eighth month, Brent is back above $100, US yields are at 24-year highs and Bitcoin has fallen back toward $81,000. And yet some assets keep performing.

Because the market is pulled by two kinds of forces:

• Exogenous forces (war, energy, rates, the dollar) hit every asset at the same time. Downward pressure.
• Endogenous forces (volume, revenue, buybacks, adoption, new products) only concern one asset. When they are strong enough, they create a move independent of the rest of the market.

Hyperliquid is the textbook case. In March 2026, at the start of the war, Bitcoin loses more than 20% and HYPE rises 40%, driven by something very concrete: traders around the world come to hedge oil on Hyperliquid at the weekend, when traditional markets are closed. In October, same again: Bitcoin falls, HYPE stays 13% from its record.

What Hyperliquid does

Hyperliquid (HYPE), launched in 2024, is a layer 1 blockchain built around a fully on-chain perpetual futures exchange: the speed of a centralised platform with the transparency of a blockchain.

With HIP-3, anyone can list a market: oil, gold, silver, indices, stocks. These real-world assets already account for more than half of the volume. The platform handled $492.7B of volume in Q1 2026, and almost all of its revenue is used to buy back HYPE on the market. Since 27 March 2026, HYPE supply has been net deflationary.

Who trusts it

• FalconX: $500M placed in HYPE options in spring 2026
• Hyperliquid Strategies: Nasdaq-listed company holding 29.3M HYPE in reserve
• Hyperion DeFi: Nasdaq-listed company, first institution to stake HYPE via Kinetiq
• Coinbase: partnership and HYPE listing in Q2 2026
• Spot HYPE ETFs: listed in the US since Q2 2026, with inflows even in October
• CFTC: the US regulator is working on a legal framework for Hyperliquid in the United States

What moved the price

HYPE has risen more than 20-fold since its launch at $3.80, and every low has been higher than the previous one since April 2025.

• November and December 2024, $3.8 to $32 (endogenous): launch through a massive community airdrop, with no venture fundraising.
• March and April 2025, $25 to $12 (mixed): the JELLY incident on the platform, then the crash triggered by US tariffs.
• April to September 2025, $12 to $54 (endogenous): record volumes, the HyperEVM launch and listed companies building HYPE reserves.
• October 2025 to January 2026, $49 to $21 (exogenous): the 10 October 2025 liquidation crash, then a broad bear market.
• March 2026, +40% while Bitcoin falls (endogenous): Hyperliquid's oil contracts break records, up to $1.7B a day, because the platform stays open at the weekend when the CME is closed.
• May and June 2026, $42 to $76.70 (mixed): launch of HYPE ETFs, Coinbase partnership and a general crypto rebound.
• 19 to 27 August 2026, +22% in one day (mixed): a filing for pre-IPO company contracts, then Donald Trump's support for a legal US entry for Hyperliquid via the CFTC.
• September and October 2026, record at $97.99 on 23 September (endogenous): launch of stablecoin borrowing against HYPE or BTC. In October, HYPE ETFs keep taking inflows while other altcoins see outflows.

Our view

Strengths:

• A proven endogenous driver: oil and real-world asset volume in times of crisis.
• Real revenue returned through permanent HYPE buybacks.
• Institutional access: spot ETFs, listed companies, FalconX options.
• A US regulatory path in preparation with the CFTC.

Watch points:

• Monthly unlocks of about 14M HYPE ($1.2B at the end of August).
• Disputed regulatory status: Singapore says it does not recognise it as regulated.
• Competition: the CME and ICE are preparing rival products.
• A highly volatile asset, sensitive to cascading liquidations.

Levels to watch

• $52: summer 2026 floor
• $80: August breakout zone
• $97.99: all-time high, major resistance

Confidence index: 80%. The market's best example of asymmetry: real revenue that holds up even when the macro picture worsens.

Buy low, sell high: where does HYPE stand?

Over 12 months, HYPE has traded between $23 and $94 and sits at 88% of that range, +268% above its January 2026 low.

• Buy low: a return to $52 to $60, the summer 2026 floor, would offer a much better entry point.
• Sell high: the $90 to $98 zone, just below the record, where the price was already rejected in September.

The analysis verdict: upper zone, carried by its own drivers. Under the rule, this is not an ideal entry point: most of the 2026 rally is done. An important nuance: this asset is carried by its own engines. In the current risk-off, it holds up better than the market, which can justify keeping a position rather than selling everything.

Educational grid based on monthly closes and historical levels as of 5 October 2026. Educational content, not investment advice.

Crypto-assets are highly volatile: you may lose some or all of your capital. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Sources of the analysis: CoinGecko, CoinLore, Digrin, Coinranking, CoinMarketCap, Nansen, CoinDesk.